the ultimate formula for calculating how much a documentary will make

Ok – there’s a lot of talk on the documentary filmmaker’s mailinglist doculink and other forums– about how much documentaries actually stand to make.

It’s a huge question and almost completely unanswerable… However, since most of the livelihoods of people on those forums and I’d say a good few credit cards depend on the answer, I thought I’d make a stab at the problem.

Not with an answer, of course, but with a completely non-scientific formula.

The idea is that although the answer to the question “how much can I make selling my documentary” is pretty difficult, it does depend on a few variables which we can start to tie down (and I’m hoping some people will post on the blog or email me (christian@darkin.demon.co.uk) with their experience or their take on how to narrow down any of the variables or refine the formula.


So here goes:

The Grand formula for calculating how much you’ll get for your documentary:

Payback in first year (Pf)= ((100-Pd)/100)*(Nt*Ft*(Pt/100) + No*Fo*(Po/100))-Cd

Total payback = (Pf+Cd)*(100/100-Py))+Pf

Where:

Cd= distributor’s costs and fees – including publicity budgets and other one-off fees
Pd= distributor’s percentage

Nt = Number of targeted countries – i.e. the countries which are most likely to buy your documentary. This depends on your documentary. It could be English speaking countries, countries with an interest in your subject or just those your distributor is going to put most effort into

Ft = the average fee paid by a target country if they buy your doc – I know this varies wildly, but you need an average per purchase per year.

Pt = Percentage of targeted countries – i.e. the percentage likelihood that your doc will sell in a given targeted country in it’s release year. Put crudely you can work that out as 100x(the number of new documentaries accepted by that country divided by the number offered to them).

No = Number of non-targeted countries –i.e. the countries where your documentary might sell, but either you’re not particularly targeting or it doesn’t stand much of a chance. If you’re making a show that’s mainly talking heads, then you’ll stand less of a chance in countries that need to dub the doc. If you’re making a show about US home policy, it’s unlikely to sell in the Ukraine.

Fo = the average fee paid by non target countries

Po = percentage of non-targeted countries you’ll sell to.

Py – percentage of your total sales you expect to make in the first year – i.e. how timely is your documentary and how quickly will the sales fall off? If it’s a nature programme, you might set Py as 20. if it’s a news based one, you might set Py as 90.


Starting to narrow down some of those variables and I’m doing it in UK pounds sterling!:
I’d put Cd at between £500 and £1000
Pd should be about 35%-45%

Nt and No = well, I’m doing science documentaries which aren’t really geographically limited – a documentary on prehistoric sharks should appeal pretty uniformly everywhere in the world. On the other hand, there’s a lot of interview so it’s likely to be primarily English speaking countries. I’m putting in Nt as 10 and No as 30

Pt and Po = well, for my last documentary my distribution company kindly sent back a list of people who’d looked at the tape and those who’ve accepted it. Right now, I’ve got one buyer and 5 rejections – so let’s set Pt at 17%. Let’s make Po half that – 8%.

Ft and Fo = well, I’ve only got one figure to go on and that’s £1900 – but I think the average may be less – so I’m putting £1,000 in.

My doc is about prehistoric animals, so it won’t become dated that quickly. Let’s set Py as 30%

That gives me an estimate of just under £6000

Not good – I’m hoping to be offered some better figures!

any ideas?